Hi Joanna,
The wheat, (harvested in early May), was fair, the milo and corn, (harvested a month early, in July) were poor. Hay is an even worse disaster, and pastures across most of the state, look as though we are in the dead of winter. In general, over 90% of the state of Texas remains in a state of severe to extreme drought. Conditions north of us, (for example, up around the Dallas/Fort Worth area), are somewhat better, and their crops are a little better, but they're still very dry. South of us, many areas are worse off than we are here in Central Texas. So many cattle are going to auction, these days, that the auction barns have to set quotas, and many loads are turned away, because the auction barns can't accommodate the huge numbers.
What are your thoughts?
Well, we're obviously stuck in a persistent La Niña pattern, which is probably going to get worse, before it gets better. I have to agree with the NOAA forecast, based on the prevailing La Niña pattern. From their La Niña page:
The negative anomalies in the last half of 2010 were consistent with La Niña. In January 2011 the negative anomalies began to decrease in magnitude, with positive anomalies evident since March 2011. Since May 2011, the positive anomalies have weakened and currently remain near zero.
Our rainfall pattern has pretty well followed that trend. Locally, we've received less than a third of normal rainfall since September of 2010. The outlook doesn't look good for next year, either, IMO. In NOAA-speak, the terms ENSO and ENSO cycle are used to describe the full range of variability observed in the Southern Oscillation Index, including both El Niño and La Niña events. When you look at this model, it shows stagnant conditions now, but it predicts that La Niña conditions will begin to develop again, in the Northern Hemisphere, during the fall of 2011.
That tells me that next year will be a repeat of this year. The problem is, we have much less soil moisture available now, than we did a year ago. With soil moisture at extreme drought levels, already, if this pattern lasts for another year, we will probably see the worst drought since the 1890's and it might exceed that one. Many trees have already died, and if this level of drought lasts for another year, I would guess that we might lose roughly 90% of them, across many parts of the state. (The last major die-off occurred in 1956 - we probably lost close to half the trees in this area, that year).
IMO, this drought is not likely to end, until El Niño conditions return, and that doesn't appear to be likely anytime soon. An intense tropical storm, or a hurricane, could save many of the trees, (especially in certain areas), though it probably wouldn't do much to alter the long-term extreme drought status. Tropical storm Don, (which passed through a few days ago), was a total dud, because all the hot and dry air which continues to hang over the state, simply sucked all the moisture out of it and quickly neutered it.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Texas is no stranger to droughts, though, so we'll survive, and when the rains begin, the change will catch us by surprise, and we'll wonder if it's ever going to stop raining - similar to what Australia has recently been through.
Thanks for asking. I hope that things are going much better in Fergus Falls, and you, Alan, and Alanna are doing well and feeling great.
Love,
Tex
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Yesterday, the high here was 112, and when I went to bed at midnight, it was still 93. 
Even in the desert, the temps cool way down at night. I don't understand why the nighttime temperatures are so high - we don't have any moisture in the air, so it should cool way down when the sun goes down.
